The Problem of Induction - 6
29 Março 2022, 09:30 • António José Teiga Zilhão
The Pragmatic Attempt at solving the Problem of Induction
1. Pascal's wager - it is impossible to know the truth value of a proposition stating God's existence; we must wager one way or other; so the best we can do is to wager in such a way that we choose the dominant option, given the payoffs involved.
2. Reichenbach's pragmatic attempt at justifying induction is structurally similar to Pascal's wager - it is an argument the purpose of which is to justify not the belief in a proposition but the choice of a wager. Thus, instead of trying to justify the belief in the Principle of Uniformity of Nature, his pragmatic approach tries to justify our following the strict rule of induction as a wager: by behaving in that way we are choosing the dominant option, given the cognitive payoffs involved.
3. Reichenbach's frequentist approach to probability and his endorsement of the law of large numbers; Reichenbach's view of the strict rule of induction as a means to ascertaining probability on the basis of evidence; Reichenbach's view of the conclusion of an induction as a posit concerning the value of a probability.
5. Analysis of the structure of Reichenbach's pragmatic argument. Reaching a decision concerning its soundness depends upon the justification given for the payoffs associated with each wager and the way the world might be. There is a case that reveals itself to be problematic: the ascription of a negative payoff to the option of following any kind of inductive method of inference under the supposition that Nature is not uniform. Reichenbach's argument for justifying such an ascription.
6. Criticism of Reichenbach's argument for justifying the ascription above: it fails to establish the conclusion it purports to establish.
7. Criticism of Reichenbach's pragmatic solution to the problem of induction: it is based on our accepting as adequate the ascription of a negative payoff to one of the possible options; but the adequacy of such an ascription was not properly established; thus, the structure of the payoffs defining the wager cannot be accepted to be appropriate.